Post by gk on Sept 2, 2011 10:29:34 GMT -6
I haven't a whiff of economics expertise, but people seem to be waiting for the economy to "recover" and unemployment to come back down to pre-recession levels. I'm very skeptical that that will ever happen. I think you could cut taxes to zero, or stimulus spend into oblivion without affecting unemployment except marginally.
The reason, to me - the layman, is simple: companies don't need you. The fastest growing and most profitable companies require relatively few workers (Google, Apple, etc.). Why would a company hire a bunch of people when they can be extremely profitable utilizing outsourcing foreign labor and automated technology? Out of the goodness of their hearts?
So I'm thinking that ~9+% is the new normal for unemployment, maybe 8% in boom times.
If I put the over/under at 7.5% for "the new normal" for unemployment (whatever that means), I go over - and way over.
The reason, to me - the layman, is simple: companies don't need you. The fastest growing and most profitable companies require relatively few workers (Google, Apple, etc.). Why would a company hire a bunch of people when they can be extremely profitable utilizing outsourcing foreign labor and automated technology? Out of the goodness of their hearts?
So I'm thinking that ~9+% is the new normal for unemployment, maybe 8% in boom times.
If I put the over/under at 7.5% for "the new normal" for unemployment (whatever that means), I go over - and way over.