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Post by "Redneck" Johnson on Nov 3, 2009 19:18:15 GMT -6
Thought I'd see if there are any comments on the little electioneering tonight (particularly from Krallski since he sits on the other side of the spectrum from me). Polls just closed in NY/NJ and have been closed an hour in Virginia. Sounds like the 3 big state offices in Virginia (Governor, Lt. Governor, and Att. General) are all Republican. There's been a lot of talk about the special election for the House seat in New York. My question: 1. Are any of the races tonight meaningful from a national perspective? And if so, which ones. I'm going to weigh in and say "No. None of these are really significant nationally." I think the Virginia thing shouldn't be a surprise- Obama was a better candidate in many ways than McCain, and I think the state generally leans to the right. Obama won the election I'm curious to see how things turn out in the New York Fightin' 23rd. But it's been a rural and traditionally Republican district back to 1996 (and I think it was completely changed in redistricting before that). There's an interesting story with Scazafaba or whatever her name is in the race, but when she dropped out it went ho-hum. I know nothing about New Jersey, but I'm anticipating they reelect the Democrat. I think we'll see a lot of unjustified punditry about the country moving right again tonight on Fox news. I don't know if CNN is going to be manufacturing some other story out of it or will see it for what it is.
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Post by gk on Nov 3, 2009 20:59:34 GMT -6
I think I heard somewhere that NY-23 has been in Republican control since the Civil War. Fivethirtyeight.com suggested it was a referrendum on the GOP as much as Obama. And I think that's half right. I don't think any of these races have anything to do with Obama, despite the trumpeting that will sound if/when Virginia selects a Republican governor and the most conservative district in the northeast selects a conservative and a Republican defeats one of the least liked politicians in the US in New Jersey. But I also don't think they necessarily prove a working model for the GOP to go forward since these districts/states aren't representative of the major demographic shifts in the country. New Jersey aside (when there's a political scandal involving rabbis and black market organs and people committing suicide, I think it's fair to throw the results out trendwise), the challenge the Republicans are going to have is getting the West back: CO, NM, NV, and AZ - or rather, preventing AZ from flipping. That'll mean getting the Young and the Hispanic (my favorite Telemundo soap opera?). Wake me when there's hard data on those major demographic shifts. Let's just hope this results in more Michael Steele face time.
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Post by "Redneck" Johnson on Nov 3, 2009 21:49:32 GMT -6
I think the 23rd has been redistricted many times, but that part of the state has been Republican since '54. 1854....
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