Post by coachsteele on Sept 9, 2010 16:16:00 GMT -6
In the past, I’ve usually tried to steer clear of any predictions in Week 1. The lines haven’t been set, the starting lineups are subject to change. It just seemed irresponsible.
No longer will I submit to responsibility when making my picks. We’ll just set the lines even for week one and go from there. Is that cool with everyone? Good. Being week one, I’ll also try to give a bit of commentary on each team’s overall draft performance in lieu of actual fantasy performance. Since the spreads aren't available yet, we'll just assume each line is even.
-- Coach Steele
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Grubbi Grubbers at H’s
The Grubbers had an excellent draft. Sure he didn’t bother taking a QB or TE until it was long past time, but when you look at the quality he ended up with elsewhere, it’s a positive gamble. And even after neglecting the positions, Eli Manning, who threw for 4000 yards last year, and Greg Olson are no slouches. I mean, compare Eli Manning late in the draft with Philip Rivers in the 4th, the H’s starting QB. Will Rivers be better? Probably. But nine rounds better? Probably not. Meanwhile grubbi was able to nab some huge potential guys: Calvin Johnson, Mendenhall, Jahvid Best and Michael Crabtree. As for the H’s, it’ll be interesting to see how they treat that Flex roster spot this year. Jerome Harrison appears to have been actively trying to lose the starting RB job all preseason. You’d think Donald Driver would be the logical choice, but he began to show signs of age last year. That said, between Andre Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, and LeSean McCoy (he’s the running back, right? LeSean, DeSean, who knows?) that is going to be one explosive offense. Although perhaps a bit too boom/bust for my tastes. I like solid, steady, attitude-establishing offenses.
I have a feeling that injuries may be the achillies heel for the Grubbers this year. That said, it’s Week 1 and everyone’s healthy, so the Grubbers get the nod.
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Turf Toe at Apocalypse Now
For Turf Toe there’s Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady, and a lot of question marks. Suggesting that Felix Jones and Knowshon Moreno are shaky as feature running backs is a bit of an understatement. Declaring that Larry Fitzgerald has worse teammates than he did last year is a serious understatement. Talent-wise, all these guys are elite players. But DVR isn’t won on talent alone.
Then again, Apocalypse has no shortage of iffy situations on their squad either. Maurice Jones-Drew was held out of practice all preseason and could either be a steal at the #9 overall spot, or a bust, suffering from a dramatic acceleration in his workload over the past couple years. Steven Jackson is a good player on a terrible team that will be playing from behind all the time. I’m not even convinced Matt Schaub can come close to repeating last year’s performance, particularly injury-free.
While neither of these teams have a ton of enticing matchups, I’ll say Turf Toe pulls out a come from behind win behind two Antonio Gates TDs against KC Monday night.
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Waco Streaking Mandalors at Stradlebuck Lugineers
Is there a better rivalry in fantasy sports? I think not. The two perennial power houses meet in Week 1 this year to see who will get an early jump on the division title. Last year the Mandalors easily took the division, but the Lugineers had the last laugh. And I mean the VERY last laugh.
Call Stradlebuck the anti-Humus, because I see a lot of solid, but perhaps not breakout players. Ryan Grant is one of those Rudi Johnson type unspectacular running backs who you can bank on 1200+ yards and 9+ TDs every year. Reggie Wayne has certainly lost a step, but it’s not like he’s going to catch less than 1000 yards. And of course, there’s Drew Brees, who on the other hand is both solid AND spectacular. Opening night against the Vikes should be huge. Expect a big week 1 out of Brees.
The Mandalors went running back heavy in the first three rounds like it was 1999. But what worries me is the unprovenness of the team. All three running backs are entering their second year in the league. Is Ray Rice a one-year wonder? Is Shonn Greene a one-playoff wonder? Will Beanie Wells make the leap? Then there’s the rest of the team. Will Flacco take the next step? Will Greg Jennings be able to find the endzone? Will Dwayne Bowe bounce back? Perhaps there’s no team with higher potential than the Mandalors, but don’t look at last year’s stats to find that potential.
As for this matchup, there is a lot of overlap in the team’s games to watch. Green Bay: who gets the touchdowns, Jennings or Grant? Baltimore: who gets the touchdowns, Ray Rice or Anquan Boldin (ostensibly thrown from the arm of Joe Flacco)? Will Dwayne Bowe torch the not-quite-vaunted San Diego Defense?
Honestly though, I expect Drew Brees to come out huge. A 40+ point night from Brees will put this matchup to rest. Stradlebuck for this week, but I’m leaning toward WSM for the division.
================================
Trogdor Burninators at Finkle
Trogdor: between Manning, Turner, Benson, Shiancoe, and Vernon Davis, Trogdor will be a touchdown machine. Expect a lot of yards-lacking / touchdown-heavy games from this squad. And that’s usually a good recipe for success in fantasy football. Actually, having Peyton Manning is a good recipe for success in fantasy football. He’s probably the only player in history that has not been a bust for, what, 10 years in a row? Welker and Harvin are both #1 WR potentials with huge injury risk. But every week they play, this team will be in contention.
If the Mandalors are looking for players to take the next step, the Laces Out are looking for players to take the first step. Kolb, CJ Spiller, and Ryan Matthews are all extremely green. The running backs are rookies, one with great talent on a terrible team, the other with ok talent on a great team. No one knows really what to expect with Kevin Kolb now that he’s officially been handed the keys. I actually think that his backup on the Laces Out, Matthew Stafford, may have the better fantasy year (amazing that Geoff and I agree on the Lions!). The good news is that the WR trio of Moss, Marshall, and DeSean Jackson, and even Jermichael Finley if you want to throw him into the recieving mix, are probably the best in the league. If Finkle hits on either of those two QBs and manages to cash in on Spiller and Matthew’s potential, this team will be unstoppable.
Prediction for week 1: Laces Out is stopped. Trogdor rolls behind a punishing posession/TD game.
=========================================
Taking My Talents to the Toilet Bowl (TMTTTTB) at Long Beach Islanders
The Detroit Lions of DVRFFL look to the air game to take them to the real playoffs with a strong passing attack of Rogers at QB and Austin, Colston, and Pierre Garcon at WR. The four of these players should produce huge numbers most of the time. The problem is when the running game has to be counted on for production. Austin, Colston, and Garcon are in perhaps the three most explosive offenses in the NFL. The problem is that each of those prolific offenses have a cache of other excellent weapons. When the recievers go TD-less, the running game will be looked to for assistence. And there again, lie a couple strong running games led by Jamal Charles and Ronnie Brown, but again, each of those players have significant competition for playing time. On pure talent, TMTTTTB may be up there with the best, but the opportunity of their star players may be a bit lacking.
Long Beach, with the number 1 selection overall took Chris Johnson in a no brainer. But I can’t help but be skeptical about Johnson’s ability to reproduce his 2009 numbers. Amassing over 400 touches last year, the Titans may have shortened CJ’s career by a full year. The wealth of information on running back productivity the year after a huge workload does not bode well. In the event that CJ misses time due to injury, what then, Long Beach? Clinton Portis is a capable backup. But Leon Washington, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Pierre Thomas all have playing time concerns. If there is one player who might take the step into elite status, it’s Hakeem Nicks. He very well could lead the Giants in receiving yards and touchdowns. Paired with Roddy White and a passing attack lead by Tony Romo, this could be a very explosive set of players to supplement or compliment Chris Johnson.
As for this week, neither team has a bunch of super-tasty matchups. But I do sort of expect Chris Johnson to go nuts against the Raiders. For that reason alone, I’ll go with Long Beach for this week.
=============================
Last week: 0-0
Season: 0-0
No longer will I submit to responsibility when making my picks. We’ll just set the lines even for week one and go from there. Is that cool with everyone? Good. Being week one, I’ll also try to give a bit of commentary on each team’s overall draft performance in lieu of actual fantasy performance. Since the spreads aren't available yet, we'll just assume each line is even.
-- Coach Steele
=========================================
Grubbi Grubbers at H’s
The Grubbers had an excellent draft. Sure he didn’t bother taking a QB or TE until it was long past time, but when you look at the quality he ended up with elsewhere, it’s a positive gamble. And even after neglecting the positions, Eli Manning, who threw for 4000 yards last year, and Greg Olson are no slouches. I mean, compare Eli Manning late in the draft with Philip Rivers in the 4th, the H’s starting QB. Will Rivers be better? Probably. But nine rounds better? Probably not. Meanwhile grubbi was able to nab some huge potential guys: Calvin Johnson, Mendenhall, Jahvid Best and Michael Crabtree. As for the H’s, it’ll be interesting to see how they treat that Flex roster spot this year. Jerome Harrison appears to have been actively trying to lose the starting RB job all preseason. You’d think Donald Driver would be the logical choice, but he began to show signs of age last year. That said, between Andre Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, and LeSean McCoy (he’s the running back, right? LeSean, DeSean, who knows?) that is going to be one explosive offense. Although perhaps a bit too boom/bust for my tastes. I like solid, steady, attitude-establishing offenses.
I have a feeling that injuries may be the achillies heel for the Grubbers this year. That said, it’s Week 1 and everyone’s healthy, so the Grubbers get the nod.
=======================================
Turf Toe at Apocalypse Now
For Turf Toe there’s Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady, and a lot of question marks. Suggesting that Felix Jones and Knowshon Moreno are shaky as feature running backs is a bit of an understatement. Declaring that Larry Fitzgerald has worse teammates than he did last year is a serious understatement. Talent-wise, all these guys are elite players. But DVR isn’t won on talent alone.
Then again, Apocalypse has no shortage of iffy situations on their squad either. Maurice Jones-Drew was held out of practice all preseason and could either be a steal at the #9 overall spot, or a bust, suffering from a dramatic acceleration in his workload over the past couple years. Steven Jackson is a good player on a terrible team that will be playing from behind all the time. I’m not even convinced Matt Schaub can come close to repeating last year’s performance, particularly injury-free.
While neither of these teams have a ton of enticing matchups, I’ll say Turf Toe pulls out a come from behind win behind two Antonio Gates TDs against KC Monday night.
===============================
Waco Streaking Mandalors at Stradlebuck Lugineers
Is there a better rivalry in fantasy sports? I think not. The two perennial power houses meet in Week 1 this year to see who will get an early jump on the division title. Last year the Mandalors easily took the division, but the Lugineers had the last laugh. And I mean the VERY last laugh.
Call Stradlebuck the anti-Humus, because I see a lot of solid, but perhaps not breakout players. Ryan Grant is one of those Rudi Johnson type unspectacular running backs who you can bank on 1200+ yards and 9+ TDs every year. Reggie Wayne has certainly lost a step, but it’s not like he’s going to catch less than 1000 yards. And of course, there’s Drew Brees, who on the other hand is both solid AND spectacular. Opening night against the Vikes should be huge. Expect a big week 1 out of Brees.
The Mandalors went running back heavy in the first three rounds like it was 1999. But what worries me is the unprovenness of the team. All three running backs are entering their second year in the league. Is Ray Rice a one-year wonder? Is Shonn Greene a one-playoff wonder? Will Beanie Wells make the leap? Then there’s the rest of the team. Will Flacco take the next step? Will Greg Jennings be able to find the endzone? Will Dwayne Bowe bounce back? Perhaps there’s no team with higher potential than the Mandalors, but don’t look at last year’s stats to find that potential.
As for this matchup, there is a lot of overlap in the team’s games to watch. Green Bay: who gets the touchdowns, Jennings or Grant? Baltimore: who gets the touchdowns, Ray Rice or Anquan Boldin (ostensibly thrown from the arm of Joe Flacco)? Will Dwayne Bowe torch the not-quite-vaunted San Diego Defense?
Honestly though, I expect Drew Brees to come out huge. A 40+ point night from Brees will put this matchup to rest. Stradlebuck for this week, but I’m leaning toward WSM for the division.
================================
Trogdor Burninators at Finkle
Trogdor: between Manning, Turner, Benson, Shiancoe, and Vernon Davis, Trogdor will be a touchdown machine. Expect a lot of yards-lacking / touchdown-heavy games from this squad. And that’s usually a good recipe for success in fantasy football. Actually, having Peyton Manning is a good recipe for success in fantasy football. He’s probably the only player in history that has not been a bust for, what, 10 years in a row? Welker and Harvin are both #1 WR potentials with huge injury risk. But every week they play, this team will be in contention.
If the Mandalors are looking for players to take the next step, the Laces Out are looking for players to take the first step. Kolb, CJ Spiller, and Ryan Matthews are all extremely green. The running backs are rookies, one with great talent on a terrible team, the other with ok talent on a great team. No one knows really what to expect with Kevin Kolb now that he’s officially been handed the keys. I actually think that his backup on the Laces Out, Matthew Stafford, may have the better fantasy year (amazing that Geoff and I agree on the Lions!). The good news is that the WR trio of Moss, Marshall, and DeSean Jackson, and even Jermichael Finley if you want to throw him into the recieving mix, are probably the best in the league. If Finkle hits on either of those two QBs and manages to cash in on Spiller and Matthew’s potential, this team will be unstoppable.
Prediction for week 1: Laces Out is stopped. Trogdor rolls behind a punishing posession/TD game.
=========================================
Taking My Talents to the Toilet Bowl (TMTTTTB) at Long Beach Islanders
The Detroit Lions of DVRFFL look to the air game to take them to the real playoffs with a strong passing attack of Rogers at QB and Austin, Colston, and Pierre Garcon at WR. The four of these players should produce huge numbers most of the time. The problem is when the running game has to be counted on for production. Austin, Colston, and Garcon are in perhaps the three most explosive offenses in the NFL. The problem is that each of those prolific offenses have a cache of other excellent weapons. When the recievers go TD-less, the running game will be looked to for assistence. And there again, lie a couple strong running games led by Jamal Charles and Ronnie Brown, but again, each of those players have significant competition for playing time. On pure talent, TMTTTTB may be up there with the best, but the opportunity of their star players may be a bit lacking.
Long Beach, with the number 1 selection overall took Chris Johnson in a no brainer. But I can’t help but be skeptical about Johnson’s ability to reproduce his 2009 numbers. Amassing over 400 touches last year, the Titans may have shortened CJ’s career by a full year. The wealth of information on running back productivity the year after a huge workload does not bode well. In the event that CJ misses time due to injury, what then, Long Beach? Clinton Portis is a capable backup. But Leon Washington, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Pierre Thomas all have playing time concerns. If there is one player who might take the step into elite status, it’s Hakeem Nicks. He very well could lead the Giants in receiving yards and touchdowns. Paired with Roddy White and a passing attack lead by Tony Romo, this could be a very explosive set of players to supplement or compliment Chris Johnson.
As for this week, neither team has a bunch of super-tasty matchups. But I do sort of expect Chris Johnson to go nuts against the Raiders. For that reason alone, I’ll go with Long Beach for this week.
=============================
Last week: 0-0
Season: 0-0
