Post by coachsteele on Sept 17, 2010 15:34:32 GMT -6
Also, in blog form :
askcoachsteele.blogspot.com/2010/09/read-between-lines-week-2.html
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Read Between the Lines: Week 2
So what did we learn from week 1? Maybe a few things:
* It’s good to have Peyton Manning on your fantasy team.
* It’s probably better to go with the guy that’s done it before than the guy merely projected to be good.
* Even when Chad does well, he still loses.
That’s about it. Now, onto the week’s lines. Week 2 lines are weird because they are entirely dependent of the Week 1 performance. That’s why you see silly lines like Finkle by 82 points or the Mandalors as 47 point underdogs. Let’s just say that I could forsee an all-underdog week. But then again....
Trogdor (-23.0) @ Turf Toe
Trogdor won convincingly last week despite a sub-par day from Michael Turner against Pittsburgh. That will not happen again as MT is up against the Cardinals. Expect 120+ hards and one, possibly two touchdowns. Unfortunately that exuberance is tempered by Cedric Benson against the Ravens. The Ravens already destroyed Shonn Greene’s season, it’s possible they could do the same against Benson.
Turf Toe is coming off a disappointing three point loss. While a 98 performance is pretty good, there’s a lot of shakiness going into this week: Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson against the Dolphins - a not-bad defense. Larry Fitzgerald whom Derek Anderson couldn’t find with a GPS. And it’s hard to count on Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee for anything. When you add up that and combine it with Michael Turner’s probable great game, Peyton Manning’s general Peyton Manningness, I’ll take Trogdor. So much for that all-underdog week.
Apocalypse Now (-47.0) @ WSM
Is it just me, or are there more QB+RB combos on the same real team being on the same DVR team than usual this year? Matt Schaub and Arian Foster provided some fireworks last week (Ray Rice and Joe Flacco did not). But don’t expect a repeat of that against a presumably decent Redskins defense this week. With a trio of Steven Jackson (@ Raiders), Foster, and Maurice Jones-Drew (@ Chargers), Apocalypse Now will be in the hunt for highest DVR score this week.
No team saw their fantasy season potentially go up in flames in week 1 more than the Mandalors. Of their first six draft picks only one, Greg Jennings, managed double digits. Even Joe Flacco couldn’t muster 10 measly points. There are some caveats: Beanie Wells was injujred (ok that may not be a caveat since it looks like this will be an recurring theme this year). Two of the Mandalors’ biggest weapons were playing the Jets. Dwayne Bowe was..... uh-oh, I’m running out of caveats. Hence, the panic button was pressed in the form of new additions (and perhaps the ONLY additions for the season) in Brandon Jackson and dog-lover Michael Vick. As panicky as these moves were, for this week, I really like Jackson against Buffalo and Vick against the Lions. Now, if only the rest of the roster could get settled.
I think Apocalypse gets the win, but 47 points is just too many to give up. I’ll take the Mandalors to cover.
Stradlebuck (-38.0) @ Humu’s
Drew Brees has a sub-par week. Ryan Grant is gone for the year. So of course, the Lugineers win easily in Week 1. If you told me at the beginning of the year that in Week 2, the Lugineer’s starting runningbacks would be Darren McFadden and Matt Forte, I would have assumed that Adam missed the draft or had taken up cocaine or something. But instead, those guys were two of the more productive backs last week. It won’t happen again.
Let me get this straight. The Humu’s have Philip Rivers against the Jags. LeSean McCoy against the Lions. DeAngelo Williams against Tampa Bay. Jerome Harrison against the Chiefs (assuming he gets more than 9 carries this week). I don’t really need to see any more analysis: The Humu’s are my pick to eat those 38 points for breakfast and win outright.
Finkle @ TMTTTTB (-82.0!)
No one ever should be an 82 point underdog. To a team that lost last week. That’s especially embarrassing for Finkle. But then, it’s unclear how Finkle is going to improve. They lost both of their starting QBs last week and as of this writing, have yet to pick up one. And at some point, Horvath must have suddenly realized that his two starting RBs were both rookies: hardly a recipe for success. Oh and the reward for this week is Randy Moss’s all-expense paid trip to Revis Island. But that’s ok: Randy Moss will certainly stop pouting later on this year.
TMTTTTB put up a good fight in Week 1, but were playing a machine. And actually, this week doesn’t have a lot of great matchups for the Toilet Bowlers. It’s hard to say that I would pick Finkle to win outright, espeically without a QB (A quick scan of the FA QBs looks like this: David Garrard, Matt Hasselbeck, Josh Freemen,... and then it gets REALLY bad). But TMTTTTB is looking at matchups against teams like the Vikings, Giants, and Aaron Rogers againstBills (ok, I know, but look at the Bill’s pass defense numbers, and Aaron Rogers will probably be handing off every play from the second quarter on). I’m glad this line is so huge, so I can take the Laces Out to cover without reservation.
Long Beach (-37.0) @ grubbi grubbers
This is the only matchup that features teams that won last week. Long Beach put up an impressive performance behind a series of impressive performances from Hakeem Nicks (anyone still think Long Beach took him too high?), Chris Johnson (playing the Steelers this week), and Jay Cutler (against the Lions). Playing Dallas this week, I expect Cutler to be unconscious by the third quarter, but that leaves Tony Romo playing in the home opener against the Bears. Expect the Cowboys to air it out big-time.
Meanwhile the grubbers have a series of just awful matchups. Running backs Jahvid Best, Frank Gore, and Rashard Mendenhall are playing the Eagles, Saints, and Titans, respectively. In the passing game, Calvin Johnson is going to be attempting to catch things thrown from Shaun Hill against the Eagles and Chad Ochocinco will be facing the Ravens. The only real potentially good matchup is Eli against the Colts. But even then, that’s at Indy.
37 points is a lot to overcome, even for a great team. But you know what? Long Beach looks like a REALLY great team, and Grubbi has the potential for a 50-point performance in all those tough matchups. I’ll take the favorite to win by 38 or more.
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Last week: 4-1, narrowly missing a perfect week by a three-point Turf Toe loss.
Season: 4-1
askcoachsteele.blogspot.com/2010/09/read-between-lines-week-2.html
=======================
Read Between the Lines: Week 2
So what did we learn from week 1? Maybe a few things:
* It’s good to have Peyton Manning on your fantasy team.
* It’s probably better to go with the guy that’s done it before than the guy merely projected to be good.
* Even when Chad does well, he still loses.
That’s about it. Now, onto the week’s lines. Week 2 lines are weird because they are entirely dependent of the Week 1 performance. That’s why you see silly lines like Finkle by 82 points or the Mandalors as 47 point underdogs. Let’s just say that I could forsee an all-underdog week. But then again....
Trogdor (-23.0) @ Turf Toe
Trogdor won convincingly last week despite a sub-par day from Michael Turner against Pittsburgh. That will not happen again as MT is up against the Cardinals. Expect 120+ hards and one, possibly two touchdowns. Unfortunately that exuberance is tempered by Cedric Benson against the Ravens. The Ravens already destroyed Shonn Greene’s season, it’s possible they could do the same against Benson.
Turf Toe is coming off a disappointing three point loss. While a 98 performance is pretty good, there’s a lot of shakiness going into this week: Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson against the Dolphins - a not-bad defense. Larry Fitzgerald whom Derek Anderson couldn’t find with a GPS. And it’s hard to count on Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee for anything. When you add up that and combine it with Michael Turner’s probable great game, Peyton Manning’s general Peyton Manningness, I’ll take Trogdor. So much for that all-underdog week.
Apocalypse Now (-47.0) @ WSM
Is it just me, or are there more QB+RB combos on the same real team being on the same DVR team than usual this year? Matt Schaub and Arian Foster provided some fireworks last week (Ray Rice and Joe Flacco did not). But don’t expect a repeat of that against a presumably decent Redskins defense this week. With a trio of Steven Jackson (@ Raiders), Foster, and Maurice Jones-Drew (@ Chargers), Apocalypse Now will be in the hunt for highest DVR score this week.
No team saw their fantasy season potentially go up in flames in week 1 more than the Mandalors. Of their first six draft picks only one, Greg Jennings, managed double digits. Even Joe Flacco couldn’t muster 10 measly points. There are some caveats: Beanie Wells was injujred (ok that may not be a caveat since it looks like this will be an recurring theme this year). Two of the Mandalors’ biggest weapons were playing the Jets. Dwayne Bowe was..... uh-oh, I’m running out of caveats. Hence, the panic button was pressed in the form of new additions (and perhaps the ONLY additions for the season) in Brandon Jackson and dog-lover Michael Vick. As panicky as these moves were, for this week, I really like Jackson against Buffalo and Vick against the Lions. Now, if only the rest of the roster could get settled.
I think Apocalypse gets the win, but 47 points is just too many to give up. I’ll take the Mandalors to cover.
Stradlebuck (-38.0) @ Humu’s
Drew Brees has a sub-par week. Ryan Grant is gone for the year. So of course, the Lugineers win easily in Week 1. If you told me at the beginning of the year that in Week 2, the Lugineer’s starting runningbacks would be Darren McFadden and Matt Forte, I would have assumed that Adam missed the draft or had taken up cocaine or something. But instead, those guys were two of the more productive backs last week. It won’t happen again.
Let me get this straight. The Humu’s have Philip Rivers against the Jags. LeSean McCoy against the Lions. DeAngelo Williams against Tampa Bay. Jerome Harrison against the Chiefs (assuming he gets more than 9 carries this week). I don’t really need to see any more analysis: The Humu’s are my pick to eat those 38 points for breakfast and win outright.
Finkle @ TMTTTTB (-82.0!)
No one ever should be an 82 point underdog. To a team that lost last week. That’s especially embarrassing for Finkle. But then, it’s unclear how Finkle is going to improve. They lost both of their starting QBs last week and as of this writing, have yet to pick up one. And at some point, Horvath must have suddenly realized that his two starting RBs were both rookies: hardly a recipe for success. Oh and the reward for this week is Randy Moss’s all-expense paid trip to Revis Island. But that’s ok: Randy Moss will certainly stop pouting later on this year.
TMTTTTB put up a good fight in Week 1, but were playing a machine. And actually, this week doesn’t have a lot of great matchups for the Toilet Bowlers. It’s hard to say that I would pick Finkle to win outright, espeically without a QB (A quick scan of the FA QBs looks like this: David Garrard, Matt Hasselbeck, Josh Freemen,... and then it gets REALLY bad). But TMTTTTB is looking at matchups against teams like the Vikings, Giants, and Aaron Rogers againstBills (ok, I know, but look at the Bill’s pass defense numbers, and Aaron Rogers will probably be handing off every play from the second quarter on). I’m glad this line is so huge, so I can take the Laces Out to cover without reservation.
Long Beach (-37.0) @ grubbi grubbers
This is the only matchup that features teams that won last week. Long Beach put up an impressive performance behind a series of impressive performances from Hakeem Nicks (anyone still think Long Beach took him too high?), Chris Johnson (playing the Steelers this week), and Jay Cutler (against the Lions). Playing Dallas this week, I expect Cutler to be unconscious by the third quarter, but that leaves Tony Romo playing in the home opener against the Bears. Expect the Cowboys to air it out big-time.
Meanwhile the grubbers have a series of just awful matchups. Running backs Jahvid Best, Frank Gore, and Rashard Mendenhall are playing the Eagles, Saints, and Titans, respectively. In the passing game, Calvin Johnson is going to be attempting to catch things thrown from Shaun Hill against the Eagles and Chad Ochocinco will be facing the Ravens. The only real potentially good matchup is Eli against the Colts. But even then, that’s at Indy.
37 points is a lot to overcome, even for a great team. But you know what? Long Beach looks like a REALLY great team, and Grubbi has the potential for a 50-point performance in all those tough matchups. I’ll take the favorite to win by 38 or more.
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Last week: 4-1, narrowly missing a perfect week by a three-point Turf Toe loss.
Season: 4-1
