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Post by gk on Aug 11, 2012 11:26:54 GMT -6
BTW, what's wrong with Biden? Seems like a generically likeable, off-the-cuff kinda guy intended to shore up Obama's perceived foreign policy weakness. I'm sure there are all sorts of clips of him saying mean things and stuff, but still. And, [/img]
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Post by "Redneck" Johnson on Aug 11, 2012 12:07:53 GMT -6
Great article you linked there. And I love the chart- he's as right wing as they come Regarding Biden,, I will provide 3 quotes: "I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that's a storybook, man." Referring to Barack Obama during the Democratic primary "Look, John's last-minute economic plan does nothing to tackle the number-one job facing the middle class, and it happens to be, as Barack says, a three-letter word: jobs. J-O-B-S, jobs." -Said during 2008 campaign "This is a big f'ng deal!" Caught by microphone during the signing of the health care law.
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Post by "Redneck" Johnson on Aug 11, 2012 13:24:41 GMT -6
2012 Senate races:
OK, having dug into it, here's my read on the upcoming Senate battle. There are 33 total races. The Republicans have 10 seats, vs. the other 23 which are held by Democrats or independents who vote on the Democrat side. The Republicans gain the majority if they pick up 4 additional seats.
I'm classifying based on my own standard formula (personal judgement of states, then polling data)
Safe Republican 7 (not going anywhere): Arizona, Mississippi, Montana, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming
Safe Democrat 13 (also not going anywhere): California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington
Up for grabs (13): Florida The Republican challenger hasn't yet been selected, as the primary is August 14. But it looks like it will be Connie Mack IV vs. the Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson.
Hard to tell before the actual candidate gets into the race. The early polling data is generally showing an edge to Nelson, but it is fairly close and there are a lot of undecideds out there. This may firm up next week after the primary makes Mack official.
Indiana Richard Mourdoch (R) is running against Joe Donnelly (D). This one got a lot of press because the incumbent Senator Richard Lugar (R) actually lost the primary to Murdoch, on the back of the Tea Party. And that's fairly indicative of the mood of the electorate, as the Democrats (who made huge gains in the 2006 elections) did not even field a candidate against Lugar that year.
Mourdoch is currently leading in the polls, though it is close. But I think Indiana is not as union influenced as neighboring Illinois and is going to close in the Republican column barring some strange gaffe.
Maine Imcumbent Olympia Snowe (R) is retiring. She was notorious amongst conservatives because she'd break ranks and compromise with Democrats, and it sounds like this was what the Maine voters want.
Candidates are Cynthia Dill (D), who served as Senator in the state legislature, Charles Summer (R) who was the Maine Secretary of State, and Angus King (I) who is a former governor.
King seems to be crushing this in the polls. The only reason it's not in a solid category is that he's not 100% a named Democrat though I think he'll caucus with the Democrats. While he's for balanced budgets, he's also pro-choice, in favor of same-sex marriage, and is pushing for green energy reform.
Massachusetts Another interesting race as it pits Scott Brown (R) who won the seat in special election after the death of Ted Kennedy against Elizabeth Warren (D). They've been slinging mud for quite a while and it's going to be a nasty fight.
The latest polls have Warren ahead slightly, but Brown is right there. I expect this one will come down right to the end. Brown pushed really hard in 2010 election, crushed his opponent in a debate, and won by 4%. It was especially significant as it broke the 60 Senator majority held by the Democats for the first 20 months of the Obama presidency. So we'll see how it plays out.
Missouri Democrat Clare McCaskill is up against Republican challenger Todd Akin, who served in the US House of Representatives. Missouri is traditionally an election bellweather state, though this election I think it's very possible the state's electoral votes will got to the losing presidential candidate. The state seems to have been moving to the right. I think McCaskill has had to take one too many hits for the team by making unpopular votes with the Democrats in the Senate (particularly on the health care bill), and she may get tossed for it.
Nebraska Democrat Ben Nelson is retiring, leaving the seat open. The candidates are former governor Bob Kerrey (D) and state Senator Deb Fischer (R). Nebraska is a primarily rural state, and the only reason I think it was a tossup is that Nelson was a popular governor who was of the opposite party than the rest of the electorate. The polls sound like it will be Deb Fischer, but it is not a given. Kerrey is a former governor and I'm not sure about how popular he is with your average Cornhusker.
Nevada Dean Heller (R) is technically the incumbent, though he was appointed to the seat after the previous holder (John Ensign) got caught cheating on his wife and resigned amid the scandal. He's facing Shelley Berkley(D), who currently holds a seat in the House of Representatives.
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid had a really close election here in 2010. The early polling shows Heller with a lead, but it's not very big. This one should be fairly close as well, barring a major mistake by one of the candidates. I'd like to put it in the R column, but with all the last-minute craziness in 2010 I don't think its prudent to call for either side just yet.
North Dakota Kent Conrad (D) is retiring, so the election will be between Heidi Heitkamp (D) the former state attorney general and Rick Berg (R), a state representative. My read is that the climate of North Dakota is changing. The state is actually in an economic boom due to oil discoveries. Berg is currently up 9% and I think that emphasis on energy (as well as the Obama administration's opposition to the Keystone pipeline) will keep it that way.
Ohio Sherrod Brown (D) was elected in 2006 as part of the sweep where the Democrats regained control of Congress. He is facing Josh Mandell, the Ohio Treasurer. I'd love to see Mandell pull off a surprise here, but Ohio is a pretty pro-union state with the unions ticked off about what happened in Wisconsin, and Brown is leading pretty big.
Pennsylvania Incumbent Bob Casey (D) was elected in 2006 and is running here against Tom Smith (R), a local farmer and businessman. There are a large number of undecideds in the polls here, but this state has typically leaned left and even with the undecided factor Casey looks to be in good shape to win.
Virginia One term Senator Jim Webb (D) is retiring. He won by less than 1% of the vote in 2006. Former governor Tim Kaine (D) got his nomination unopposed, while the Republicans selected former governor and Senator George Allen. Allen was the sitting Senator who was displaced by Webb in 2006.
This is a neck and neck race. I think that Allen is going to squeek things out, but the general consensus is that he lost in 2006 due to a gaffe. If he does something similar here he could easily lose the election.
West Virginia Democratic incumbent Joe Manchen is running to get his first full term. He was the replacement for longtime Senator Robert Byrd, who passed away in 2010. Manchen replaced in a special election in 2010. His opponent is John Raese, who lost to Manchen in the 2010 special election.
The latest polling data I see is from back in April, which isn't very timely but showed Manchen with a huge lead. This state typically depends heavily on labor, but Obama has made some statements about want to shut down coal power that may hurt his general chances here. Still, it's a long way for Raese to go.
Wisconsin Herb Kohl (D) has been a long-serving representative from this state, and Wisconsin has traditionally voted Democrat. However, Wisconsin has been at the center of several news stories this election cycle because of it's Republican governor in Scott Walker, who managed to survive a recall attempt in the spring. The Republican primary is on August 14, after which time we can likely make more of a determination on this particular race.
My early analysis
If the Republicans get the 7 I've listed above, they can swing the majority by getting 7 other seats. The current polling in Montana shows a tight race, but I think that's a typical small rural state that will fall Republican. I like them to take Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and Virginia. If they can snag 2 of Florida, Massachusetts, NEvada or Wisconsin they'll retake the majority.
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Post by gk on Aug 11, 2012 15:54:43 GMT -6
Wondering about Nate Silver's rationale here: "@fivethirtyeight Ryan pick might also increase the correlation between presidential and congressional races."
As for those Biden quotes... I'm not sure if you're being serious or not as to those being why you'd despise the guy. Is it because you think Biden doesn't get skewered enough for saying marginally stupid or barely offensive things? Because, y'know, he does.
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Post by "Redneck" Johnson on Aug 11, 2012 16:05:37 GMT -6
He seems like a Democratic version of Dan Quayle, and I do feel that he's not ridiculed to that same standard. But I dislike him more because of his political positions. He's been in office a long time too, and so he's had more time to associate with some of the more irksome items that have happened over the years. He's still a cut above the Nancy Pelosis, Harry Reids, Ted Kennedys, etc. in my book.
And it's not like he's like Hank "Have you considered Guam might capsize?" Johnson.
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Post by "Redneck" Johnson on Aug 11, 2012 16:06:20 GMT -6
I posted the comments because I found them humorous. Technically, the third comment is correct no matter your political position.
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Post by fatmenace on Aug 12, 2012 7:55:13 GMT -6
More political rhetoric. That's all Paul Ryan has to offer. He voted for TARP, voted for the GE & Chrysler bailouts, and wants the Patriot Act to be made permanent. You tell me; is he really fiscally conservative? Is he really on the side of smaller govt. and for the betterment of the little guy, you and me? He's a crutch that Romney hopes will help his flagging ratings to push him into the Presidential Primaries.
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Post by fatmenace on Aug 12, 2012 7:58:55 GMT -6
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Post by mayor on Aug 12, 2012 18:50:23 GMT -6
Ryan cites Ayn Rand as a significant influence.
That's all I needed to hear.
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Post by mayor on Aug 12, 2012 18:54:42 GMT -6
From what I've read it doesn't look like Ryan is in favor of cutting defense spending. A quick search led me to this article with the following quote: "the Ryan budget proposes rolling back defense cuts that were part of the debt-ceiling negotiations last year" money.cnn.com/2012/08/12/news/economy/paul-ryan-economy/
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Post by mayor on Aug 12, 2012 18:58:09 GMT -6
I'm still a fairly big Obama supporter. Not quite like four years ago, but I'm happy with what he has done given the circumstances. Are there things I wish he did differently? Sure. But I can't imagine a significantly better (realistic) alternative.
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Post by gk on Aug 13, 2012 9:52:22 GMT -6
More political rhetoric. That's all Paul Ryan has to offer. He voted for TARP, voted for the GE & Chrysler bailouts, and wants the Patriot Act to be made permanent. Wait, then why is he a TP and conservative darling? Is it just because he has proposed a thing? Obviously he's made conservative votes (see chart above) and likes Ayn Rand (*rolls eyes*) but I thought those things were anathema to the TP.
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Post by grubbi on Aug 15, 2012 20:28:08 GMT -6
"Sometimes I think that Peace Prize winners shouldn't have a kill list"
Obama That I Used To Know
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Post by gk on Aug 16, 2012 21:03:46 GMT -6
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Post by "Redneck" Johnson on Aug 21, 2012 20:24:46 GMT -6
And we have a gaffe. Looks like Missouri is now a toss-up.
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