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Post by fatmenace on Aug 24, 2012 16:40:37 GMT -6
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Post by fatmenace on Sept 6, 2012 7:47:23 GMT -6
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Post by gk on Sept 7, 2012 11:29:05 GMT -6
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Post by mayor on Sept 7, 2012 12:25:54 GMT -6
I'm glad to see Gawker is using its moral authority to criticize drone strikes.
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Post by "Redneck" Johnson on Sept 7, 2012 23:36:58 GMT -6
Looking in again on the races. I think a couple of newsworthy items are going here:
Florida It appears Nelson (D) is opening a sizable lead here. Connie Mack (R) is the opponent, and I'm not sure she's getting anywhere.
Massachusetts Scott Brown (R)'s lead is just at the margin of error of 5%. It looks like he is working hard since we last checked on this. We'll see how things hold up following the Democratic convention this week.
Missouri This one is up for grabs. Whatever Todd Akin stepped in he appears to be recovering, as the polls in late August show this one neck and neck.
Nevada Heller (R) is leading this race, but it is still within the margin of error for the polling and way too close to call.
North Dakota Yeah. No one is updating polling data here. Who the heck knows?
Ohio Latest polls show that Mandel (R) has moved within the margin of error with Brown (D). I had written this one off as Democratic, but it may still be in play for the Republicans.
Virginia This is a dead heat at the moment. I'm still thinking it will swing Republican, but that's less on actual data and more on gut feelings.
Wisconsin It appears Thompson (R) has a 9 point lead in late polls. If he pulls away that's quite a coup for the Republicans.
I'm looking at this, and I'm seeing a growing strength in the Republican support (except for the semi-crash in Missouri). I'm really curious to see if this is being reflected at all in the Romney-Obama race.
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Post by gk on Sept 17, 2012 20:38:52 GMT -6
I will say that Ryan-Clinton 2016 feels like it will be fun for some reason.
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Post by "Redneck" Johnson on Sept 26, 2012 21:17:23 GMT -6
Late September Senate Update.
Safe Republican 7 (not going anywhere): Arizona, Mississippi, Montana, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming
Safe Democrat 13 (also not going anywhere): California, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia
Up for grabs (14): Connecticut I had this safely Democratic as it is Joe Lieberman's seat, and the new Democrat running for it (Chris Murphy) is a popular representative. But he's being out fundraised by Linda McMahon (wife of WWE chairman Vince McMahon), and she's getting traction. It still seems to be leaning Democrat, but it is an awful lot closer than it was before.
Florida The Republican challenger is Connie Mack IV vs. the Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson. This race didn't really firm up for the Republicans following their primary- Nelson has a sizable lead and unless he chokes I think this one goes Democrat. That could also be a negative impact on the Presidential race should it hold up. It's being reported that Democrat voters are being oversampled in some of the polls in Florida and Ohio- that's about the only chance I would see for the Republicans here.
Indiana Not a lot of change though the polls have flip-flopped. I still like Richard Mourdoch (R)to beat Joe Donnelly (D) because of Tea Party activity here.
Maine Candidates are Cynthia Dill (D), who served as Senator in the state legislature, Charles Summer (R) who was the Maine Secretary of State, and Angus King (I) who is a former governor.
Summer is making up ground has the gap is a bit narrower, but I don't think he's going to quite get there before election day. It looks like it will be Angus King the Independent, and he's likely going to caucus with the Democrats.
Massachusetts Another interesting race as it pits Scott Brown (R) who won the seat in special election after the death of Ted Kennedy against Elizabeth Warren (D). They've been slinging mud for quite a while and it's still going to be a nasty fight.
After Warren having a slight lead, they're dead even. Different polls show different candidates ahead, always within the margin of error. I expect this one will still come down right to the end.
Missouri Democrat Clare McCaskill is up against Republican challenger Todd Akin, who committed a fairly big gaffe back in August. Judging from the fact that it's not making news, I think the furor over it has died down. And it looks like Akin is recovering nicely- this one is definitely in play again. One wonders if Akin would have run away with it had he not said something stupid about abortion, but he may win it yet. It would certainly making those demanding he step down "for the good of the party" look pretty foolish, especially as it is a non-issue again.
Nebraska Democrat Ben Nelson is retiring, leaving the seat open. The candidates are former governor Bob Kerrey (D) and state Senator Deb Fischer (R). Nebraska is a primarily rural state, and the only reason I think it was a tossup is that Nelson was a popular governor who was of the opposite party than the rest of the electorate. That said, I'm not seeing anything other than a Republican win happening here.
Nevada Dean Heller (R) is technically the incumbent, though he was appointed to the seat after the previous holder (John Ensign) got caught cheating on his wife and resigned amid the scandal. He's facing Shelley Berkley(D), who currently holds a seat in the House of Representatives.
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid had a really close election here in 2010. The latest polls I'm finding show Berkley ahead but not by enough that it can't change. This one should be fairly close as well, barring a major mistake by one of the candidates. I'm thinking this one won't be known until election night.
North Dakota Kent Conrad (D) is retiring, so the election will be between Heidi Heitkamp (D) the former state attorney general and Rick Berg (R), a state representative. My read is that the climate of North Dakota is changing. The state is actually in an economic boom due to oil discoveries. I'm not seeing much change reported here and I think it goes Republican.
Ohio Sherrod Brown (D) was elected in 2006 as part of the sweep where the Democrats regained control of Congress. He is facing Josh Mandell, the Ohio Treasurer. Both Romney and Obama are actually campaigning in Ohio right now. Again, I'm hearing rumors that the Democratic vote may be oversampled here. But I think Brown is so far out in front that even accounting for such a thing would still carry the state for the Democrats.
Pennsylvania Incumbent Bob Casey (D) was elected in 2006 and is running here against Tom Smith (R), a local farmer and businessman. There are a large number of undecideds in the polls here, but this state has typically leaned left and even with the undecided factor Casey looks to be in good shape to win. The election looks closer than the last time around, but not like it is that much closer.
Virginia One term Senator Jim Webb (D) is retiring. He won by less than 1% of the vote in 2006. Former governor Tim Kaine (D) got his nomination unopposed, while the Republicans selected former governor and Senator George Allen. Allen was the sitting Senator who was displaced by Webb in 2006.
This is still a neck and neck race. I still like Allen to win it.
Wisconsin Herb Kohl (D) has been a long-serving representative from this state, and Wisconsin has traditionally voted Democrat. He's going to be up against Tommy Thompson, a former state governor.
There really wasn't much polling done here after the August Republican primary, until last week. The polls before had shown a general Republican lead. The latest polls are showing slight leads for Democrat Herb Kohl, with most inside the marge of error.
I think the Scott Walker thing is more indicative of where the state is going to fall. But Kohl has been there an awfully long time, and may be popular enough to get it done.
My analysis
Since my last breakdown I took West Virginia out of play (landslide there) and put Connecticut back out. A couple of polls show Arizona as being in play for the Democrats, but I think that is just wishful thinking. The general population has been right leaning and I don't see it changing- they'll pull together by election day.
If the Republicans get the 7 I've listed above, they can swing the majority by getting 7 other seats. I like them to take Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and Virginia. If they can snag 2 of Connecticut, Florida, Massachusetts, Nevada or Wisconsin they'll retake the majority. Based on the 2010 election I like Brown to take Massachusetts, and I like Wisconsin for the Scott Walker factor. I grade Nevada as a tossup, would be pleasantly surprised and not shocked if Connecticut goes Republican.
Turning to the presidential race, I want to see what Romney can do in the debates. There are a lot of news stories flying around that the election is already Obama's as he has the votes in key states. The hard-core right wingers generally have been keeping their spirits up with two things:
1. A lot of the polling data is showing that the samples are rated with about +8-10% of the voters being Democrat. The latest polling shows Republicans as being +3-5% of the registered voters. My only issue is how that's weighted on a state by state basis. But it makes some of the polling in the close states (such as Florida or Ohio, where there are lots of electoral votes) really matter. the other problem I have is that I don't think a lot of this polling gives a great picture of the electorate- it is mostly done via landlines, and a large number of people have abandoned them. It's really hard to tell how reliable any polling data. 2. Obama has been working really hard in advertising and campaigning in some of these states. If he is really up +10% in the polls and the election is already over he's not acting like it.
I'm of the opinion that the races in Florida and Ohio are closer than the polls indicate, but I think Romney is generally a percentage point or two behind Obama in both places. I also think Romney has more work to do in Ohio than Florida- there's a good percentage of voters in the western parts of the sunshine state that I feel are being underrepresented in the projections. This part of the state got ignored during the 2000 election, as their polls were an hour from closing when the state was first called for Gore (and one could infer that the exit polling was primarily done in left-leaning Broward county).
The election isn't over yet, and a good showing in the debates could shore up the presidency for either candidate. That being said, if I'm chairing the Obama campaign I'd be hitting Florida and Ohio as hard as possible as that's where it will be won. Romney can win without one state, but not if he drops both.
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Post by gk on Oct 3, 2012 21:01:14 GMT -6
Well that debate should even up things quite a bit. I expect the polls to be near tied in a week. Epic bet wetting job from Obama. Not sure if I've ever seen a worse debate performance.
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Post by "Redneck" Johnson on Oct 3, 2012 22:00:20 GMT -6
Watching the post-debate coverage, it looks clear what each side is going to do.
The Democrats are going to try to go down the fact check route, criticizing everything Romney said as being between an exaggeration and a flat-out lie.
The Republicans will focus on Obama looking unpresidential and uninspired during the debate and try to overdraw on it.
I think the most intelligent thing I heard on any of the after coverage is that Romney has been portrayed in Democratic ads as a fire breathing monster who wants to push grandma off a cliff. And he came off as someone who has a different vision for America than the president, and is a lot more reasonable than the ads made him out to be.
I havea few other thoughts:
1. Obama hasn't really been challenged like this in a debate. the closest he came was in the Democratic primary for the presidency, but his Senate opponent in 2006 dropped out of the race and McCain didn't go after him in 2008. It will be interesting to see how his campaign adjusts for the next Presidential debate. I expected a much more aggressive debate in the vice presidential debate before tonight, which no one is really going to pay attention to because it's not the presidential candidates. But Barack's camp is going to retool how they handle things, and they're hoping the Town Hall format will benefit him.
2. Romney's best moment by far is when he spoke about what he believes America should be policywise. If he can get solidly identified with that message in the minds of the electorate he'll win the election.
3. Winning the debate tonight isn't terribly indicative. For all the polling of independents and undecideds, it still doesn't reflect what the population in Ohio and Florida is going to do. I heard a lot of instant polling data and the criteria never seems to fit correctly. And I still think there's some bias in the poll sampling going on here, so I have a real hard time gauging what public opinion really is. If one candidate gets both states, they'll win the election regardless of where the popular votes fall.
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Post by gk on Oct 4, 2012 11:29:49 GMT -6
You're being way to kind on Obama, Grant. I appreciate the attempt at bipartisanship but it's ok to call out a terrible performance by the guy you don't like. I mean, there are probably like 40 Rick Perry knocks in here from me (who may have had the only worse debate performance than BO last night).
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Post by "Redneck" Johnson on Oct 4, 2012 13:30:54 GMT -6
I felt that I was being harder on Obama with the paved path comment.I could quote Dennis Miller and say "I hope the Affordable Care Act covers Ass kickings," but honestly I'm less interested in scoring points than Romney identifying himself as right leaning with the masses, as he did last night.
To be honest I'm just overjoyed we've reached this point in the election. I really feel like the campaigns start way too early and we spend forever overanalyzing every little nuance. We finally have a big-boy campaign item to talk about here. Not just regurgitating soundbytes from the campaign stump, not someone trumping up a quote out of context to raise money or support. Real political debate, and something to analyze.
We're honestly on a pretty good cycle now. This is going to be the subject until Monday, when we look at the VP debate. Then two more presidential debates and we run up to election day. Strap yourselves in boys!
You're on the ground in Colorado Geoff- what's the local reaction there like?
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Post by mayor on Oct 6, 2012 18:10:28 GMT -6
Obama sucked, but he is gonna win easy.
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Post by gk on Oct 6, 2012 18:21:49 GMT -6
You're on the ground in Colorado Geoff- what's the local reaction there like? Hard to say. We don't have working television at our house: just netflix and hulu. But on the occasion we do stumble across network TV every other ad is a presidential political one. We do get a lot of mailers though. Both Steph and I are registered independents so we get duplicates of every gross mailer, many of which have Obama either wearing Red China garb, or depicted as subservient to Red China. (although, my personal favorite was the one of a child literally being run down by a train (a subtle metaphor for our national debt).) The Obama campaign thus far seems noticeably less-staffed than in 2008. I've only gotten one doorknock from an Obama person. Maybe it'll speed up.
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Post by gk on Oct 11, 2012 21:22:29 GMT -6
1) I don't think the VP debate will move any numbers (except Dem enthusiasm). 2) If Obama had had Biden's performance last week the presidential election would have been over.
I don't think Ryan was bad or anything, but all Obama had to be last week was "not terrible" and he failed it. You'll note that I said that godawful debate performance would have the polls tied within a week, and lo and behold, they are tied.
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Post by "Redneck" Johnson on Oct 16, 2012 21:40:52 GMT -6
I'm going to grade Obama a 7/10 and Romney a 6.5/10 tonight. Romney fumbled on the Benghazi question trying to get a soundbite. When Obama said "acts of terror" (emphasis added) he was making a generic statement. That said, Romney tried to get a "Gotcha!" that wasn't quite so clear and is looking silly for it. Everyone knows there was a deflection to the youtube video, but we got to dance around the issue some more instead of confronting it like adults.
I give Barack the edge because he looked a lot more confident than he did at the first debate. He spent most of his time deconstructing Romney, either through his campaign talking points or disputing what Romney said. Romney didn't do many favors, because while he was on task he took a dig a Obama at every opportunity. That wasn't as necessary as he thought it was, and I think in the third debate he'll cut back.
This is definitely not going to shift the momentum in Obama's favor the way the first debate did for Romney. I more expect that Romney's gains are going to slow down, but I don't expect them to diminish. I don't think much got settled here tonight.
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