2012 Election Thread

[gk]

I think you we're too generous to Obama on debate 1, too generous to Romney here. Pretty bad performance. And I'm really curious if he can just ride this stating "12 million jobs" thing because something about running a business all the way to the White House.

It's important to remember at this point that the entire election will probably come down to Southern, rural Ohio.

[mayor]

I think last night will start moving things back toward Obama, but either way, it looks like it's going to be a close election.

If nothing else, this debate gave us "binders full of women." That's enough for me.

["Redneck" Johnson]

Debate number 3 done. This was (in my opinion) Obama's strongest of the three debates. He's actually got foreign policy experience and it showed tonight. He seemed that he knew what he wanted. That being said:

1. Romney was obviously taking a very non-risky position. Be very centrist when it comes to discussing foreign policy, take fewer shots at the president, and try to steer back to the economy where he's comfortable. I think his advisers told him to back off on attacking Obama as it was much less pronounced than debate #2.

2. Obama really didn't say anything terribly new tonight either. I was surprised (and relieved) that we didn't spend all night talking about killing Osama bin Laden. Obama was also a lot more pro-Israel in his positions than I'm used to him being. And he really got a lot of positive attention with his story of going to Israel during his campaign.

3. This was the best moderated debate of the three by far. Even if

4. This wasn't a strict foreign policy debate. We meandered to the economy (somewhat expected) and to military spending (ok) to education (serously???). If anything I'd have wished for a little more point on topic, but in comparison to the other two trainwrecks this was fine. I like giving them a topic relevant to what is going on and letting them discuss.

5. I'm really not sure how to read this one. Obama clearly won the debate. I'm watching some of the polling data come out on CNN, and I'm seeing some similarities to what they got in debate #2: Obama won the debate from a "who scored the most points" perspective, but Romney didn't get demolished the way Obama did the first time out. He still seems like a viable option for president, and then it kicks back to the voters preference whether on an issue or on how they feel about the candidate.

Also found it interesting the comment about a smarter Navy. I think that is a sign that Obama has written off Virginia.

We'll see if the polling data shakes out differently in the next week. My gut feeling is that if Romney can snag Wisconsin or Ohio he'll win the election. And if he doesn't then it will be Obama.

["Redneck" Johnson]

And also, there's the factor of who watched tonight. This was the third debate, it was fairly boring (especially for the first half hour), and there were really compelling television alternatives in the NLCS and MNF.

[fatmenace]

Obama wins!!

["Redneck" Johnson]

And we're officially in the serious mud-slinging time. Rumor has it that Donald Trump and Gloria Allred have "shocking news" about the candidates that is releasing today.

I really get the sense the neither of the items being released are going to really add anything of substance to the race. But they'll get picked up and repeated as a great reason not to support "the other guy."

[fatmenace]

The only thing that would shock me about the two idiots is if one of them announced they were making a decision that actually increased liberty and personal freedom for American citizens, instead of constantly tightening the noose of government control around our necks.

[mayor]

@ said:

And we're officially in the serious mud-slinging time. Rumor has it that Donald Trump and Gloria Allred have "shocking news" about the candidates that is releasing today.

I really get the sense the neither of the items being released are going to really add anything of substance to the race. But they'll get picked up and repeated as a great reason not to support "the other guy."

Obama wasn't born in the US?!!!

["Redneck" Johnson]

Apparently Trump is offering money to get Obama to release his college transcripts. And Allred wants to unseal testimony from a 20 year old divorce case, where Romney testified as to the worth of the husband's stock assets.

["Redneck" Johnson]

Two weeks out update on the Senate races:

Up for grabs (14):
Connecticut
Democrat (Chris Murphy) is up 1 percentage point on Republican Linda McMahon (wife of WWE chairman Vince McMahon). Looks like the polling data tightened up in October. Going to be right there on election day.

Florida
The Republican challenger is Connie Mack IV vs. the Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson. This race didn't really firm up for the Republicans following their primary- Nelson has a sizable lead and unless he chokes I think this one goes Democrat. I'm surprised because despite this, the Republicans look like they'll get Florida in the Presidential election. I think Bill's well known and trusted by the voters, so he's getting elected. That's the way to do it.

Indiana
Mourdoch had a nice lead before he opened his mouth on abortion/rape pregnancy. I still like Richard Mourdoch (R)to beat Joe Donnelly (D) because of Tea Party activity here, and the conservative social values folks tend to hold in the Midwest. His gaffe may hurt the national race for Romney (if it hurts anything) but I think he's fine.

Maine
Candidates are Cynthia Dill (D), who served as Senator in the state legislature, Charles Summer (R) who was the Maine Secretary of State, and Angus King (I) who is a former governor. Angus King will be taking this one easily, and he'll probably caucus Democrat.

Massachusetts
Another interesting race as it pits Scott Brown (R) who won the seat in special election after the death of Ted Kennedy against Elizabeth Warren (D). They've been slinging mud for quite a while and it's still going to be a nasty fight.

Brown pulled ahead early this month, but Warren appears to be pulling away now. It is still possible to come around election night, but I wouldn't be betting on it. The Democrats in state will be out to vote Obama and I think that will do Brown in.

Missouri
Democrat Clare McCaskill is up against Republican challenger Todd Akin, who committed a fairly big gaffe back in August. It's no longer a national story what Todd Akin said, but I think he's made some other stumbles on the way and this one has fallen apart on him. McCaskill is up several percentage points, and Akin's going to have to cross his fingers that Romney turnout saves him.

Nebraska
Democrat Ben Nelson is retiring, leaving the seat open. The candidates are former governor Bob Kerrey (D) and state Senator Deb Fischer (R). Nebraska is a primarily rural state, and the only reason I think it was a tossup is that Nelson was a popular governor who was of the opposite party than the rest of the electorate. That said, I'm not seeing anything other than a Republican win happening here.

Nevada
Dean Heller (R) is technically the incumbent, though he was appointed to the seat after the previous holder (John Ensign) got caught cheating on his wife and resigned amid the scandal. He's facing Shelley Berkley(D), who currently holds a seat in the House of Representatives.

Heller is really pulling away. But this is going to be a crucial battleground in the Presidential election and that may still bounce this one around.

North Dakota
Kent Conrad (D) is retiring, so the election will be between Heidi Heitkamp (D) the former state attorney general and Rick Berg (R), a state representative. My read is that the climate of North Dakota is changing. The state is actually in an economic boom due to oil discoveries. There was a poll reporting tied recently, but everything else has Berg by 5% or more.

Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D) was elected in 2006 as part of the sweep where the Democrats regained control of Congress. He is facing Josh Mandell, the Ohio Treasurer. Both Romney and Obama are actually campaigning in Ohio right now. It looks like Mandell is just a few percentage points behind. Presidential turnout may also play into this race.

Pennsylvania
Incumbent Bob Casey (D) was elected in 2006 and is running here against Tom Smith (R), a local farmer and businessman. There are a large number of undecideds in the polls here, but this state has typically leaned left and even with the undecided factor Casey looks to be in good shape to win. The election looks closer than the last time around, but not like it is that much closer.

Virginia
One term Senator Jim Webb (D) is retiring. He won by less than 1% of the vote in 2006. Former governor Tim Kaine (D) got his nomination unopposed, while the Republicans selected former governor and Senator George Allen. Allen was the sitting Senator who was displaced by Webb in 2006.

This is still a neck and neck race. I still like Allen to win it.

Wisconsin
Herb Kohl (D) has been a long-serving representative from this state, and Wisconsin has traditionally voted Democrat. He's going to be up against Tommy Thompson, a former state governor.

I think we have a choke job going on in Missouri. I'm unhappy about Walker losing in Massachusetts but not terribly surprised by it. And I'm really shocked that Connecticut and Ohio are going to be in play considering the earlier leads.


From the trends I see, Florida is not happening for the Republicans. So three are going to be needed from Connecticut, Massachusetts, Missouri, Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin. If Romney gets the presidency, then they only need 2 and Vice President Paul Ryan would tiebreak.

[gk]

A Romney victory + only 49 Senate seats has to be the best case scenario for republicans right? That way Romney can continue to allow all the good stuff from Obamacare despite insisting he wants to repeal it. And allow them to continue to say they need even moar congresspeople in 2014.

["Redneck" Johnson]

No, it still works at 50+. The only way for the Republicans to destroy the health care bill is to defund it using budgetary means. If they "overlook" that aspect the Senate Democrats can filibuster it and thus carry the blame.

I think our system is one of the best out there, but even the best systems can be abused. The childishness of our leadership on both sides of the aisle is laughable.

[gk]

updates.deadspin.com/post/34780905169/nate-silvers-braying-idiot-detractors-show-that-being

["Redneck" Johnson]

In fact, we’ve reached the point in our screwed-up political media culture where the polling companies and forecasters—not the pundits, not the spokespeople, and certainly not the candidates—are the only people being evaluated rigorously on the substance of their arguments.

This is only too true.